Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x0562…9d66
world · 170 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$38,250 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$41,110 · open −$1,170
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27,176
Realized+$41,110
Unrealized−$1,170
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses71 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions31
Markets (closed)145 / 170
History coverage41d
Avg bet$1,480
Trades / day80.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 31 History 145 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,688
7 days−$971
14 days+$19,241
30 days+$31,893
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 24¢ 32¢ $4,870 $6,500 +$1,630 (+33%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 22¢ 46¢ $1,541 $3,185 +$1,644 (+107%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 64¢ 58¢ $3,245 $2,968 −$277 (-9%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $4,080 $2,375 −$1,705 (-42%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 14¢ 18¢ $1,690 $2,286 +$596 (+35%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 50¢ 52¢ $2,161 $2,269 +$108 (+5%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 24¢ 92¢ $244 $925 +$681 (+279%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 5¢ 44¢ $106 $890 +$784 (+740%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $880 $855 −$25 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $860 $845 −$15 (-2%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $2,077 $649 −$1,428 (-69%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? No 20¢ 16¢ $800 $640 −$160 (-20%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 29¢ 31¢ $580 $620 +$40 (+7%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 70¢ 74¢ $490 $514 +$24 (+5%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $294 $446 +$152 (+52%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $275 $335 +$60 (+22%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 14¢ 48¢ $70 $238 +$168 (+239%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 30¢ 2¢ $3,050 $235 −$2,815 (-92%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 16¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No 10¢ 11¢ $57 $63 +$6 (+10%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 57¢ 74¢ $28 $37 +$9 (+31%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 51¢ 68¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+34%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $35 $25 −$11 (-31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $340 $18 −$322 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1,664 +$599 +36%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $200 +$300 +150%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$64 +178%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $3,200 +$27 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $997 +$662 +66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$31 +45%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $165 +$6 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $880 +$70 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $20 −$10 -50%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $634 −$414 -65%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $332 −$332 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $3,203 −$3,203 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $1,250 −$100 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $4,200 −$150 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $452 +$418 +93%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -63%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $674 +$294 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 07 $58 +$4 +7%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 07 $2,676 +$541 +20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $315 +$35 +11%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 07 $810 +$190 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $260 −$20 -8%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $2 $0 -2%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 05 $200 −$123 -61%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 05 $1,651 −$633 -38%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 05 $1,844 −$1,844 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 04 $4,614 +$893 +19%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? Jun 03 $224 −$189 -84%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 03 $320 +$40 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $6,773 +$2,956 +44%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 03 $175 −$82 -47%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 03 $193 −$193 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 03 $188 −$188 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $470 +$1,343 +286%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,759 −$1,438 -82%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $377 −$376 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $91 +$66 +73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $610 −$156 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $3,008 +$1,246 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $14,247 +$9,807 +69%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $181 +$19 +11%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 01 $840 −$70 -8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $460 −$460 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 01 $320 −$146 -46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 01 $2,524 −$1,396 -55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $8,840 −$447 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $468 −$438 -94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $303 +$965 +318%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $21,395 +$11,076 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 77% +$46,432
other 13% −$4,173
politics 3% −$519
tech 2% −$2,000
sports 1% −$773
finance 1% +$1,452
culture 1% −$401
crypto 0% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $185 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $500 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $277 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $303 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $25 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $160 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $20 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 42¢ $147 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 42¢ $462 3h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $110 3h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $0 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 12¢ $718 4h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $2 4h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $3 4h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 50¢ $65 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $166 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 6h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $490 6h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $9 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $78 7h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $450 7h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 22¢ $93 8h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $2 8h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 22¢ $0 9h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $563 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +14.1% +3.2% 67% 48% -13.5%
≤30d 125 -5.9% -14.9% 46% 36% +5.3%
≤90d 145 +33.8% +21.1% 49% 39% +8.1%
all 145 +33.8% +21.1% 49% 39% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover80.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.1% 39% +8.1%
10% +9.5% 32% -2.3%
15% ← realistic here -1.1% 27% -11.7%
20% -10.8% 22% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,175.97 · official $27,175.98 (match) · 3500 history records