Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x0562…18a4 sports 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$78,906 (+15%) realized +$74,006 · open +$4,900
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%79W / 68L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$3,564per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$8,293est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16,710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,954
7 days+$28,640
14 days+$62,284
30 days+$43,486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$77,256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +33.1% +20.4% 71% 71% +21.2%
≤30d 106 -7.1% -16.0% 51% 47% +0.0%
≤90d 147 +1.6% -8.1% 54% 50% +3.5%
all 147 +1.6% -8.1% 54% 50% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 50% +3.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 47% -6.4%
15% -24.9% 46% -15.5%
20% -32.3% 36% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$4,264) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,929 vs −$2,338 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$16,710
Realized+$74,006
Unrealized+$4,900
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses79 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$8,293
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage74d
Avg bet$3,564
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 47¢ 66¢ $11,810 $16,710 +$4,900 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $11,139 −$4,111 -37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $4,078 +$7,339 +180%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $3,903 +$4,104 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,277 +$1,623 +71%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5,218 −$5,158 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $8,611 +$10,619 +123%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3,580 +$5,019 +140%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10,515 −$10,357 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $4,500 +$3,167 +70%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,029 +$1,892 +93%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,974 −$3,900 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $408 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10,802 +$5,086 +47%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,362 +$1,329 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6,931 +$3,075 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,355 +$1,026 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $7,905 +$8,286 +105%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $6,415 +$4,696 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5,546 +$1,170 +21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3,447 +$6,199 +180%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,366 −$3,300 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12,704 +$813 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,021 +$1,071 +53%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $18,261 +$9,407 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10,074 +$1,989 +20%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $12,707 −$7,054 -56%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8,393 +$10,456 +125%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4,719 +$3,598 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,815 −$1,776 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5,100 +$5,582 +109%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,927 +$1,133 +29%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4,878 −$4,775 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4,796 −$4,719 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,163 −$2,100 -66%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4,263 −$4,200 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5,413 +$5,691 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,011 +$385 +10%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3,027 +$509 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,038 +$1,838 +46%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,123 −$1,100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3,158 +$4,992 +158%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,111 −$1,102 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3,478 +$658 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $4,790 +$3,684 +77%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $13,044 +$264 +2%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $7,405 +$3,126 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $2,861 −$2,800 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $6,947 +$3,310 +48%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $11,961 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $4,907 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $3,061 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 53¢ $4,169 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 40¢ $4,894 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $1,053 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $3,051 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $11,417 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $3,919 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $4,078 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $12 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $3,891 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $3,900 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 58¢ $2,277 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $3,038 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $2,181 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $19,231 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $28 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $8,583 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $8,599 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $3,580 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $2,633 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Vitality 100¢ $7,667 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $7,882 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 58¢ $2,250 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 58¢ $2,250 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $3,974 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $2,029 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 35¢ $408 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,710.32 · official $16,710.32 (match) · 355 history records