Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x055e…de32 other 1173 markets active 3d ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$326 (-2%) realized −$174 · open −$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%267W / 891L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$311
14 days−$329
30 days−$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$99
world 38% −$98
politics 4% +$34
crypto 3% −$121
economics 2% −$49
tech 1% +$28
weather 0% +$1
sports 0% −$12
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.6% -11.9% 36% 23% -46.5%
≤30d 128 -33.8% -40.1% 25% 16% -17.0%
≤90d 325 -27.3% -34.2% 23% 17% -15.4%
all 1158 -25.0% -32.1% 23% 19% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 19% -10.5%
10% -38.6% 16% -19.1%
15% -44.6% 14% -26.9%
20% -50.0% 12% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$152
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses267 / 891
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1158 / 1173
History coverage333d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 25¢ 0¢ $151 $1 −$150 (-99%)
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -78%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -47%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $429 −$246 -57%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 14 $9 −$7 -82%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -45%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$7 -81%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Will Siniša Karan be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegov Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Branko Blanuša be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzeg Jun 14 $1 +$4 +423%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +208%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +149%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$31 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $190 −$26 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $106 −$3 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $4 +$2 +62%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 09 $81 $0 -1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $18 −$1 -4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $9 −$2 -26%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -35%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -19%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 June 1-7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $3 +$5 +146%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $2 2d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $4 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL No 11¢ $1 2d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $31 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $79 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $79 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $20 2d
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? SELL No 1¢ $1 2d
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? SELL No 1¢ $2 2d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 47¢ $1 2d
Will Siniša Karan be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegov SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Branko Blanuša be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzeg SELL Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $15 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $10 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $29 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 35¢ $29 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 35¢ $29 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.51 · official $1.51 (match) · 2528 history records