Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:04:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x055b…ad2a weather 263 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses bigP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized +$147 · open −$189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%215W / 46L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 61% −$227
crypto 28% −$7,623
other 11% −$1,404
sports 1% −$223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 102 -15.6% -23.6% 82% 0% -24.9%
≤90d 261 -11.7% -20.1% 82% 0% -20.1%
all 261 -11.7% -20.1% 82% 0% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 0% -20.1%
10% -27.7% 0% -27.8%
15% -34.7% 0% -34.7%
20% -41.1% 0% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$204 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized+$147
Unrealized−$189
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses215 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)261 / 263
History coverage62d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $395 $395 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in July 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $394 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $394 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $393 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $393 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $306 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $392 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $392 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $391 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $391 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $224 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $263 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 14? Jun 14 $781 −$391 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $289 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $259 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 13? Jun 13 $780 −$390 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 13 $389 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $149 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $389 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 12 $303 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $388 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 12? Jun 12 $388 −$194 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $388 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $388 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 11 $387 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 11? Jun 11 $776 −$388 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $388 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $387 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 10? Jun 10 $776 −$388 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $388 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $387 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 9? Jun 09 $776 −$388 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $388 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $386 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $773 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 08 $386 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $178 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 7? Jun 07 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 7? Jun 07 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $311 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $75 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 6? Jun 07 $385 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $395 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $394 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $394 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $393 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $171 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $222 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $86 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $305 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $392 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $392 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $391 8d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $41 8d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $9 8d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $275 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $224 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $257 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $390 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $390 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $289 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $101 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $244 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.15 · official $395.15 (match) · 816 history records