Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x0557…0a3e other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$394 · open −$381
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$3
sports 20% −$60
world 6% +$84
finance 4% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 +50.5% +36.1% 67% 67% +51.3%
all 18 -11.3% -19.7% 44% 28% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 28% +1.0%
10% -27.4% 22% -8.6%
15% -34.4% 17% -17.5%
20% -40.9% 17% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$54 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$2,206
Realized+$394
Unrealized−$381
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage246d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? No 51¢ 44¢ $2,210 $1,934 −$276 (-12%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $154 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ $130 $64 −$66 (-51%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $93 $56 −$38 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $77 −$75 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 05 $668 +$532 +80%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $90 +$284 +315%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 08 $144 +$117 +82%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 28 $105 +$28 +27%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,040 on the final trading day of Janua Jan 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 13 $74 −$74 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 01 $541 +$9 +2%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 30 $218 −$28 -13%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Dec 30 $31 −$25 -81%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $612 −$37 -6%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 26 $100 −$36 -36%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 23 $300 +$14 +4%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 04 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 04 $888 +$10 +1%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) Oct 19 $155 −$78 -50%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 19 $300 +$58 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $155 1h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 15¢ $77 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $93 35d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes $10 55d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 31¢ $78 58d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 53¢ $106 60d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 60¢ $180 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL No 89¢ $261 70d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes $90 73d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 19¢ $95 73d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 48¢ $144 73d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL Yes $129 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes $105 84d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,040 on the final trading day of Janua BUY Yes 25¢ $33 147d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,040 on the final trading day of Janua BUY Yes 25¢ $5 147d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 55¢ $278 151d
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 30¢ $74 155d
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? BUY No 51¢ $2,210 156d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL No 39¢ $195 157d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 39¢ $390 161d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $130 163d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $224 169d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $259 169d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $58 169d
No airdrop in 2025? SELL Yes $6 169d
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? SELL Yes $6 169d
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? SELL No $5 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,206.41 · official $2,206.41 (match) · 245 history records