Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:45:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
05 0x0554…da2a other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 418d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$598 (-3%) realized −$576 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%49W / 63L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$38
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% −$895
other 29% −$563
politics 29% +$1,024
sports 5% −$254
world 3% +$1
weather 2% +$89
finance 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -18.3% -26.1% 33% 27% -30.4%
≤30d 23 -11.2% -19.6% 30% 26% -12.9%
≤90d 28 -8.8% -17.5% 32% 29% -34.2%
all 112 -16.7% -24.7% 44% 33% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 33% -11.9%
10% -31.9% 26% -20.3%
15% -38.4% 20% -28.0%
20% -44.5% 16% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$51 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$576
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses49 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)112 / 123
History coverage418d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 41¢ 42¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin kimchi premium hit 8% in 2026? No 34¢ 40¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+17%)
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? Yes 43¢ 15¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-65%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $40 −$14 -36%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the Mexico vs South Korea Jun 19 $6 +$20 +318%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $12 +$10 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +274%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 11 $58 −$3 -6%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Wild vs. Stars May 15 $30 +$30 +101%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 15 $204 −$200 -98%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 28 $40 +$25 +62%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Apr 12 $58 −$24 -41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 12 $100 −$11 -11%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 21 $160 +$12 +7%
Will the United States of America win the gold medal for Winter Olympi Feb 20 $300 +$90 +30%
Men's Quarterfinals - Finland vs. Switzerland Feb 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechia Feb 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - Slovakia vs. Germany Feb 18 $50 +$21 +43%
Men's Group A - France vs. Czechia Feb 13 $41 +$15 +38%
Men's Group B - Italy vs. Slovakia Feb 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Sweden Feb 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 05 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 05 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 05 $31 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 05 $140 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 05 $50 −$5 -9%
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? Jan 18 $65 +$85 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 06 $497 −$497 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? Nov 05 $465 +$116 +25%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Nov 05 $130 +$46 +36%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $1,568 +$215 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Nov 03 $17 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 36¢ $21 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $21 11h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 36¢ $10 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 27h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the Mexico vs South Korea SELL Yes 99¢ $26 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia a BUY 1¢ $4 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY 2¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY 6¢ $5 2d
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the Mexico vs South Korea BUY Yes 23¢ $6 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 5d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 34¢ $11 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 34¢ $10 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $12 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 6d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? SELL Yes 43¢ $38 7d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 7d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.83 · official $69.13 · 492 history records