Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0553…e967 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$981 (-13%) realized −$974 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$371per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$770
sports 22% −$298
world 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 40% -25.7%
≤30d 15 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 40% -25.7%
≤90d 15 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 40% -25.7%
all 15 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 40% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 40% -25.7%
10% -19.7% 40% -32.8%
15% -27.5% 27% -39.3%
20% -34.6% 13% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$225 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,493
Realized−$974
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$371
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 31¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 +$114 +23%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $86 +$58 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$241 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$95 +93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,495 −$653 -44%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $306 −$306 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $245 +$7 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $500 −$13 -2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $209 +$79 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $607 −$600 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $347 −$31 -9%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $294 −$186 -63%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $504 +$154 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $95 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $617 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $745 15h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $196 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $86 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $503 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $102 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 18h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $306 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $252 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $487 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $493 42h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $188 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 43h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 48¢ $316 43h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $100 43h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $347 43h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 78¢ $842 43h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $108 43h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 21¢ $108 43h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $193 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,492.69 · official $1,492.78 (match) · 42 history records