Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0551…3d39 other 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 559d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$918 (-4%) realized −$918 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate32%58W / 124L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$168est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$221
7 days−$233
14 days−$450
30 days−$491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$130
world 24% −$188
other 21% −$169
crypto 14% −$398
politics 4% −$116
tech 3% −$32
culture 0% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -10.1% -18.6% 4% 0% -18.2%
≤30d 69 -9.8% -18.4% 10% 1% -14.6%
≤90d 113 -7.8% -16.5% 12% 3% -13.2%
all 182 -4.0% -13.1% 32% 8% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 8% -13.4%
10% -21.5% 3% -21.7%
15% -29.0% 3% -29.2%
20% -36.0% 2% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

559d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$918
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses58 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 182
History coverage559d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 29 $120 −$12 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $154 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, Jun 29 $157 −$19 -12%
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? Jun 29 $114 −$114 -100%
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Jun 28 $150 −$12 -8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 28 $320 −$7 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe Jun 28 $116 −$12 -10%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $74 −$1 -2%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 28 $112 −$22 -20%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $58 −$1 -2%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $64 −$1 -2%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Jun 28 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Ron Nirenberg win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election? Jun 28 $19 −$1 -8%
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? Jun 28 $102 −$3 -2%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $44 −$4 -9%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $207 −$6 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 27 $28 −$6 -21%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 27 $32 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 27 $150 $0 +0%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 26 $57 −$11 -19%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 25 $125 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 19 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 19 $38 −$35 -91%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $294 −$13 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $196 +$2 +1%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $78 −$72 -92%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $306 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $88 −$3 -4%
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $104 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $168 −$6 -3%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 17 $122 −$34 -28%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 17 $100 −$24 -24%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 17 $30 −$3 -10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $120 −$18 -15%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $240 −$4 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $172 $0 +0%
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $30 −$12 -40%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $38 −$4 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $408 −$4 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $284 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 13 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $34 −$22 -66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $48 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $6 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $1 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $6 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $1 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $23 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $1 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $6 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $154 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $16 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $154 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $120 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL No 68¢ $119 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL No 69¢ $2 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, BUY No 69¢ $123 3h
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? SELL No 69¢ $138 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL Yes 9¢ $9 17h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL Yes 79¢ $79 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL Yes 8¢ $8 18h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL Yes 78¢ $35 18h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL Yes 78¢ $43 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL No 52¢ $104 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, BUY Yes 17¢ $34 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY No 58¢ $116 20h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 20h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 20h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 21h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 37¢ $37 21h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 21h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 733 history records