Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0551…5498 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-16%) realized −$21 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$56
sports 34% −$52
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-55.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -50.3% -55.0% 12% 12% -37.9%
≤30d 26 -50.3% -55.0% 12% 12% -37.9%
≤90d 26 -50.3% -55.0% 12% 12% -37.9%
all 26 -50.3% -55.0% 12% 12% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.0% 12% -37.9%
10% -59.3% 12% -43.9%
15% -63.2% 12% -49.3%
20% -66.9% 12% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$8 · ×4.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage3d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 20¢ $60 $23 −$37 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 27 $3 +$17 +550%
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -97%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 27 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $24 −$24 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 +$12 +291%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$77 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $5 3h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $3 22h
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals BUY Yes $2 22h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes $2 22h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 22h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 24h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 16¢ $5 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 25h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 17¢ $7 28h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $1 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $1 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $24 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 28h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 30h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $3 30h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 30h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes $15 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $13 2d
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25 BUY 52¢ $47 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.21 · official $23.21 (match) · 34 history records