Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x054d…27bf other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,764 (+18%) realized +$1,674 · open +$1,090
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate84%64W / 12L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$5,050now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$37
14 days+$97
30 days+$1,590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$2,173
world 22% +$372
finance 5% +$530
weather 4% +$1
sports 4% −$351
economics 2% +$5
politics 1% +$4
crypto 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +5.5% -4.5% 100% 12% -7.4%
≤30d 34 +20.0% +8.5% 88% 53% +13.7%
≤90d 76 +9.7% -0.7% 84% 39% +5.1%
all 76 +9.7% -0.7% 84% 39% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 39% +5.1%
10% -10.2% 32% -4.9%
15% -18.9% 22% -14.1%
20% -26.9% 13% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$52 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.94 per $1 lost it wins $3.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$5,050
Realized+$1,674
Unrealized+$1,090
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses64 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions58
Markets (closed)76 / 134
History coverage76d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 88¢ $259 $671 +$411 (+159%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 47¢ 88¢ $299 $564 +$265 (+89%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $95 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 68¢ 100¢ $289 $421 +$132 (+46%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 30¢ $310 $336 +$26 (+8%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 62¢ 95¢ $199 $304 +$105 (+52%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $344 $304 −$41 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $249 $279 +$30 (+12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $196 $196 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 53¢ 96¢ $79 $145 +$65 (+82%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 20¢ $134 $142 +$9 (+7%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 76¢ $86 $142 +$56 (+66%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $94 $127 +$33 (+35%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $111 $114 +$4 (+4%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 67¢ 97¢ $71 $102 +$32 (+45%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 82¢ 99¢ $82 $99 +$17 (+20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $87 $80 −$6 (-7%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 29¢ 77¢ $29 $77 +$48 (+166%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $144 $69 −$75 (-52%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $39 $66 +$27 (+68%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $92 $64 −$28 (-30%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 23¢ 53¢ $23 $53 +$30 (+126%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $45 $50 +$4 (+10%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $110 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $46 $50 +$4 (+8%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French pres Jun 19 $68 +$3 +4%
Fiston Mayele: 1+ goals Jun 17 $79 $0 +0%
Rúben Neves: 1+ goals Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,185 +$15 +1%
Will another country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $65 +$5 +7%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $28 +$12 +43%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $23 +$14 +61%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 11 $60 +$6 +9%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 11 $58 +$7 +12%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 11 $14 +$6 +39%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 10 $23 +$13 +55%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4 +$3 +82%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $9 +$15 +165%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $9 +$3 +33%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 04 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $36 +$11 +31%
Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31? Jun 01 $42 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,298 +$502 +39%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 01 $284 +$21 +8%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 31 $1,575 +$587 +37%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $31 +$10 +32%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu May 25 $49 +$13 +27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup May 23 $16 +$4 +25%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $225 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $19 −$5 -29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $460 +$535 +116%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World May 22 $5 +$2 +50%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $58 +$4 +6%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $24 +$11 +49%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C May 20 $11 +$11 +100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 20 $13 −$1 -7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 20 $44 +$6 +14%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $75 +$13 +17%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? May 17 $215 +$5 +2%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup May 17 $38 +$9 +24%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $49 +$18 +36%
Will Strasbourg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? May 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World May 15 $42 +$23 +55%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup May 15 $35 +$6 +19%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World May 10 $7 +$8 +104%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu May 09 $36 +$5 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 52m
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $6 1h
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $18 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $41 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $42 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $38 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $20 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $36 1h
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e BUY Yes 19¢ $0 14h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 21h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 27h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 27h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 27h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 27h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 34h
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e BUY Yes 19¢ $0 42h
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French pres SELL Yes 78¢ $0 42h
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Rúben Neves: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $65 3d
Fiston Mayele: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $79 3d
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French pres SELL Yes 78¢ $2 3d
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French pres SELL Yes 78¢ $49 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 96¢ $100 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,049.97 · official $5,033.45 (match) · 924 history records