Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x054d…97c5 politics 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+6%) realized +$105 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$96
sports 4% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.9% -14.9% 67% 33% -19.1%
≤30d 10 +5.2% -4.8% 80% 50% -7.4%
≤90d 10 +5.2% -4.8% 80% 50% -7.4%
all 10 +5.2% -4.8% 80% 50% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 50% -7.4%
10% -14.0% 20% -16.3%
15% -22.3% 10% -24.4%
20% -29.9% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$105
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $65 $88 +$23 (+35%)
Will Yordan Alvarez record the most intentional walks during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 19¢ 54¢ $30 $83 +$54 (+182%)
Will Rhyne Howard have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? Yes 37¢ 56¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+53%)
Will Jordin Canada have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? No 60¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 24 $120 −$19 -16%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 24 $37 −$21 -56%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $140 +$2 +1%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $70 +$8 +11%
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 17 $67 +$5 +8%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 17 $27 +$11 +41%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 16 $87 +$24 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordin Canada have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 r BUY Yes 8¢ $2 16m
Will Rhyne Howard have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 re BUY Yes 37¢ $8 22m
Will Yordan Alvarez record the most intentional walks during the 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $30 22m
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 SELL Yes 19¢ $9 23m
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 SELL Yes 19¢ $36 24m
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 BUY Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 BUY Yes 26¢ $15 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 BUY Yes 19¢ $21 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 BUY Yes 12¢ $65 1h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 1h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 1h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 1h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 25¢ $57 1h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 1h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $76 1h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL Yes 7¢ $15 1h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 2h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 2h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY Yes 29¢ $120 2h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 2h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2h
Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? SELL No 93¢ $23 3h
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? SELL Yes 93¢ $7 3h
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 3h
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? BUY No 60¢ $110 3h
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? BUY No 60¢ $4 3h
Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? BUY No 82¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.13 · official $184.13 (match) · 52 history records