Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
05 0x054b…afd5 crypto 915 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,167 (+1%) realized +$2,455 · open −$288
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%473W / 439L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$433est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,012now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 149d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$312
sports 34% +$533
other 12% +$376
finance 1% −$465
politics 0% −$282
world 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -7.2% -16.1% 59% 59% -16.5%
≤30d 45 -23.9% -31.2% 47% 47% -25.6%
≤90d 659 -25.8% -32.8% 40% 39% -30.1%
all 912 -0.7% -10.2% 52% 51% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 51% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 50% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 48% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 45% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$178 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$1,012
Realized+$2,455
Unrealized−$288
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses473 / 439
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$433
Open positions3
Markets (closed)912 / 915
History coverage149d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 912 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $600 $594 −$6 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 58¢ 4¢ $300 $21 −$279 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $353 +$139 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$222 +73%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$49 +49%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $254 +$327 +128%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $402 +$80 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $354 +$177 +50%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $403 +$123 +31%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $304 +$188 +62%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $201 +$34 +17%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $201 +$65 +32%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $201 +$55 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$105 +52%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $203 −$27 -14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $404 −$400 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $202 +$88 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $201 −$200 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$208 +102%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $202 +$69 +34%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $201 +$34 +17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $203 −$36 -18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$88 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 09 $201 +$61 +30%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $305 +$347 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 23 $325 −$321 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 23 $225 −$205 -91%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $478 −$470 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $226 −$222 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 21 $203 −$200 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11PM ET May 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $570 −$236 -41%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $607 +$409 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 20 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $305 +$302 +99%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $203 −$188 -93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $204 +$336 +165%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $437 +$499 +114%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $203 +$148 +73%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $304 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $403 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $608 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $492 6h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $353 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $150 29h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $581 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $402 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $354 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $254 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $304 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $507 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 76¢ $403 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 100¢ $235 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $201 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 78¢ $201 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 52¢ $304 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 75¢ $201 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 4d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Spurs 4¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $101 4d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Spurs 62¢ $171 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $303 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $201 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,012.27 · official $1,012.27 (match) · 1999 history records