Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x0548…66a0
world · 142 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$770 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$769 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized−$769
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses88 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)133 / 142
History coverage160d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 9 History 133 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$12
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? No 55¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $30 +$10 +35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $60 −$10 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $50 +$12 +25%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$6 +12%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $60 −$60 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $101 +$8 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $306 +$30 +10%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $81 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $10 +$17 +170%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 17? Apr 19 $165 +$6 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $80 +$6 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $52 +$33 +62%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026 Apr 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $102 −$59 -58%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $155 −$108 -70%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $50 +$10 +20%
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by March 31? Apr 03 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? Apr 03 $70 +$18 +26%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $88 −$22 -24%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 1, 2026 Apr 01 $5 −$4 -81%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $50 +$7 +14%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $150 −$28 -18%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? Mar 31 $122 −$47 -38%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? Mar 25 $51 +$2 +5%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 24 $191 +$3 +2%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? Mar 24 $24 +$7 +28%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $1 $0 -24%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? Mar 20 $22 +$1 +3%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $10 −$5 -50%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 19 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Trump say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during meeting with Netany Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026? Mar 18 $75 −$29 -39%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump say "Middle East" during meeting with Netanyahu? Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 93% −$790
other 2% +$50
finance 2% +$50
politics 1% −$94
sports 1% +$13
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $50 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 5d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $50 16d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $30 16d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $30 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $50 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $101 17d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $336 18d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $206 20d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 21d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 94¢ $100 23d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 27d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 54¢ $10 27d
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 1¢ $1 32d
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $93 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +44.0% +30.3% 67% 67% +1.2%
≤30d 12 +17.7% +6.5% 83% 50% -6.4%
≤90d 68 -38.9% -44.8% 38% 21% -50.5%
all 133 -12.3% -20.7% 66% 29% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 29% -12.6%
10% -28.3% 19% -20.9%
15% -35.2% 8% -28.6%
20% -41.5% 6% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.27 · official $48.28 (match) · 448 history records