Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0547…9446 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 395d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$9
other 29% $0
politics 9% $0
economics 5% $0
weather 5% $0
tech 3% +$1
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.3% -3.9% 83% 17% -6.4%
≤30d 8 +4.7% -5.3% 75% 12% -6.8%
≤90d 8 +4.7% -5.3% 75% 12% -6.8%
all 34 -1.8% -11.2% 59% 3% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -8.2%
10% -19.7% 3% -17.0%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.0%
20% -34.5% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.74 per $1 lost it wins $3.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage395d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $23 +$6 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 -4%
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jun 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $7 $0 +5%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 02 $7 −$1 -12%
Will the Mumbai Indians win the 2025 Indian Premier League? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? May 29 $6 $0 +7%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 27 $22 $0 -2%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 22 $26 $0 -1%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 20 $1 $0 -11%
Will 'Fatal' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $16 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $17 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $10 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $6 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $28 43h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $26 45h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $47 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $3 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $6 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records