Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0544…b84f crypto 1504 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate91%1365W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$42
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -1.4% -10.8% 91% 28% -10.8%
≤30d 547 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 14% -9.7%
≤90d 1504 -0.6% -10.1% 91% 21% -10.2%
all 1504 -0.6% -10.1% 91% 21% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 21% -10.2%
10% -18.7% 7% -18.8%
15% -26.5% 5% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1365 / 139
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1504 / 1504
History coverage85d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1504 Trades
no open positions (134 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3190 history records