Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
05 0x0542…ebc1 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$871 (+9%) realized +$871 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate85%34W / 6L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$1,068
other 2% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +13.5% +2.7% 85% 72% +0.1%
≤30d 40 +13.5% +2.7% 85% 72% +0.1%
≤90d 40 +13.5% +2.7% 85% 72% +0.1%
all 40 +13.5% +2.7% 85% 72% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 72% +0.1%
10% -7.1% 40% -9.5%
15% -16.1% 30% -18.3%
20% -24.3% 18% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$250 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$871
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses34 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage6d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $716 +$314 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $272 −$270 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $271 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $713 +$246 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $273 −$270 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $272 +$29 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $272 +$30 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $273 +$48 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $273 +$41 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $283 +$573 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $274 +$63 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $712 −$700 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $273 +$56 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $278 +$203 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $273 +$46 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $272 +$22 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $273 +$51 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $274 +$72 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $272 +$22 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $273 +$48 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $272 +$30 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $272 +$35 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $277 +$144 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $271 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $151 −$150 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $154 +$88 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $152 +$33 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $152 +$29 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 +$27 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the No. 51 Ferrari AF Corse win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $716 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $272 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $271 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $713 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $273 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $272 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $272 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $273 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $273 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $283 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $274 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $712 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $273 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $278 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $273 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $272 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $273 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $274 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $272 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $273 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $272 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $272 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $277 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $271 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $151 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $154 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $152 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $150 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $152 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1,024.26 · 74 history records