Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:53:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x053a…1038 crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$18 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 47L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$76
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$77
world 11% +$4
other 8% −$25
politics 2% −$5
tech 1% −$5
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +11.9% +1.3% 76% 72% +10.3%
≤30d 29 +0.1% -9.4% 69% 62% +8.4%
≤90d 29 +0.1% -9.4% 69% 62% +8.4%
all 74 -28.2% -35.0% 36% 32% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 32% +3.3%
10% -41.2% 26% -6.6%
15% -46.9% 19% -15.6%
20% -52.1% 15% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 77
History coverage148d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$27 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $28 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 13 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 13 $1 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 13 $3 −$2 -72%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -91%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 09 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 6? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $5 +$10 +194%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 02 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 3? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 28? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 1? Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.06 · official $2.06 (match) · 159 history records