Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
05 0x0539…9fe8 other 1082 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1076W / 5L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$16
sports 46% +$2
crypto 1% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 342 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 924 +2.0% -7.7% 99% 1% -9.3%
all 1081 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 1% -9.3%
10% -16.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -24.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1076 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1081 / 1082
History coverage100d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1081 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
David Fry: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Nicolás de la Cruz: 4+ shots Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Ryan Mendes: 2+ goals Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will "No Scope" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Verso Time - Game 4 Winner Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Mehdi Taremi: 2+ shots on target Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jieni7 win the Masters London MVP Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Elmer Rodríguez: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Virtus.pro - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Mikel Merino: 5+ shots Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida to score first vs. Wydad Athletic Club? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Maghreb AS de Fès 2 - 3 RS Berkane? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
AS FAR vs. Kawkab AC: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-3.5) vs ECHO (+3.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Junya Itō: 4+ shots on target Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Ao Tanaka: 1+ assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Kento Shiogai: 3+ shots Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Takefusa Kubo: 3+ shots Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Anis Ben Slimane: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Taylor Ward: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Enner Valencia: 1+ shots on target Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Alan Franco: 1+ shots on target Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Henry Davis: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
John Yeboah: 4+ shots on target Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Luis Torrens: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals + assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Enner Valencia: 2+ assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Travis Bazzana: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Trevor McDonald: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots on target Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Yahia Fofana: 3+ saves Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals + assists Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Phantom (+3.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs Phantom (+6.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Denzel Dumfries: 1+ shots Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Benjamin Nygren: 2+ shots Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Denzel Dumfries: 1+ shots on target Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Alexander Isak: 4+ shots Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
David Fry: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5m
Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Nicolás de la Cruz: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 26h
Ryan Mendes: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 26h
Will "No Scope" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? BUY No 99¢ $5 26h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $5 27h
Mehdi Taremi: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 29h
Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 29h
Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 29h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 30h
Elmer Rodríguez: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 30h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Verso Time - Game 4 Winner BUY Verso Time 100¢ $5 30h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 31h
Will Jieni7 win the Masters London MVP BUY No 100¢ $5 31h
Mikel Merino: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 32h
Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $5 32h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Virtus.pro - Game 3 Winner BUY Verso Time 100¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: Maghreb AS de Fès 2 - 3 RS Berkane? BUY No 100¢ $5 34h
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida to score first vs. Wydad Athletic Club? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 34h
AS FAR vs. Kawkab AC: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 34h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-3.5) vs ECHO (+3.5) BUY K27 100¢ $5 38h
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 100¢ $5 39h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $5 43h
Junya Itō: 4+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 44h
Ao Tanaka: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 44h
Kento Shiogai: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 44h
Takefusa Kubo: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 44h
Anis Ben Slimane: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 44h
Taylor Ward: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $4.97 (match) · 2419 history records