Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0539…bb07 other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$14
politics 35% −$13
sports 12% −$4
economics 2% $0
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 119 -1.1% -10.5% 10% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage132d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $463 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $231 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $214 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $232 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $204 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $239 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $216 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $234 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $218 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $219 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $207 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 04 $231 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $400 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $179 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $203 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $184 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $255 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $266 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $246 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $729 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $232 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $401 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $79 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $454 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 21 $263 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $273 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $297 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $472 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $228 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 15 $249 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 13h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 35h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 7d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 7d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 10d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 14d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 15d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $283 22d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $283 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $269 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $269 29d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 29d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $197 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $197 30d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $231 30d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $231 32d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $214 32d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $214 33d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $232 33d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $232 35d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $204 35d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $204 36d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $197 36d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $197 39d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $239 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 375 history records