Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x0537…e9dc sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+2%) realized −$162 · open +$218
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,774now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$166
sports 38% +$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 71% 57% +3.2%
≤30d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 71% 57% +3.2%
≤90d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 71% 57% +3.2%
all 7 -2.0% -11.3% 71% 57% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 57% +3.2%
10% -19.8% 43% -6.7%
15% -27.5% 43% -15.7%
20% -34.6% 14% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$86 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,774
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$218
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $900 $926 +$26 (+3%)
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Remy Bertola 73¢ 76¢ $353 $368 +$14 (+4%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Ben Shelton 41¢ 100¢ $100 $244 +$144 (+144%)
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Laslo Djere 70¢ 81¢ $200 $233 +$33 (+17%)
Figueira Da Foz (Doubles): Hruncakova/Kuzmova vs Bhosale/Cascino Hruncakova/Kuzmova 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $202 +$117 +58%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $390 +$140 +36%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$72 -70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $122 +$51 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 66¢ $54 16m
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 75¢ $302 22m
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 23¢ $37 24m
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 50¢ $83 42m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 67¢ $101 42m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 41¢ $102 55m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 73¢ $101 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 68¢ $101 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 58¢ $101 1h
Figueira Da Foz (Doubles): Hruncakova/Kuzmova vs Bhosale/Cascino BUY Hruncakova/Kuzmova 99¢ $1 1h
Figueira Da Foz (Doubles): Hruncakova/Kuzmova vs Bhosale/Cascino BUY Hruncakova/Kuzmova 99¢ $1 1h
Figueira Da Foz (Doubles): Hruncakova/Kuzmova vs Bhosale/Cascino BUY Hruncakova/Kuzmova 99¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $406 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $390 12h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $30 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $122 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,773.98 · official $1,737.43 · 26 history records