Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:02:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0535…1ddb other 188 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate17%32W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$52
other 26% −$14
sports 21% −$3
economics 6% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
world 4% −$1
tech 3% −$2
culture 3% +$36
finance 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 25 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 87 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 1% -9.9%
all 188 -0.8% -10.2% 17% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses32 / 156
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)188 / 188
History coverage159d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 188 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 02 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $165 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $183 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $62 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $208 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $101 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $22 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $106 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 26 $44 −$3 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $29 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 25 $23 $0 +1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $191 −$1 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $34 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 23 $70 −$2 -3%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 21 $120 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $41 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 21 $117 −$1 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 20 $119 −$1 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $127 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $75 +$39 +52%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $170 −$1 -1%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 14 $34 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $92 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $86 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 8h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 7d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 7d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 20d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 20d
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? SELL No 93¢ $22 20d
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY No 98¢ $23 21d
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL No 92¢ $27 21d
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY No 94¢ $28 21d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $31 21d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $31 21d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $25 21d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $25 22d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $27 22d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $27 22d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $26 22d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $27 22d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $27 22d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $27 23d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $18 23d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $18 23d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $26 23d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $26 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $20 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $20 23d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $24 23d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $24 24d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $23 24d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $23 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 814 history records