Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
05 0x0535…fd35 sports 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$110 (-4%) realized −$99 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate69%71W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$62
14 days−$16
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$37
sports 45% −$151
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -6.9% -15.8% 92% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 103 -12.5% -20.9% 69% 12% -11.3%
≤90d 103 -12.5% -20.9% 69% 12% -11.3%
all 103 -12.5% -20.9% 69% 12% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 12% -11.3%
10% -28.4% 11% -19.8%
15% -35.4% 10% -27.6%
20% -41.7% 10% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses71 / 32
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)103 / 110
History coverage28d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Houston Astros 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Roland Garros WTA: Completed Match: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic No 99¢ 50¢ $21 $11 −$10 (-50%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Over 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Houston Astros 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will any player score 40+ points in any game during the 2026 NBA Final Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Roya Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be exactly 4 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $38 $0 +1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $35 +$3 +9%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $10 +$6 +54%
Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 06 $379 +$33 +9%
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 06 $294 +$1 +0%
Will Vincent Keymer win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $420 +$8 +2%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Ju Wenjun win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Prostejov: Yosuke Watanuki vs Pedro Boscardin Dias Jun 01 $5 +$3 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 100¢ $10 3m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 100¢ $20 6m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 20m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $20 24m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $0 46m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 50m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $10 50m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 53m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $10 56m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 22h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 22h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 22h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 22h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 2d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 99¢ $5 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.23 · official $90.23 (match) · 340 history records