Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
05 0x0531…aa5a sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$909 (+18%) realized +$916 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate66%38W / 20L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$361
14 days+$352
30 days+$805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$653
other 23% +$78
crypto 5% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +25.0% +13.1% 72% 68% +9.7%
≤30d 51 +62.0% +46.6% 67% 63% +10.1%
≤90d 58 +52.3% +37.8% 66% 62% +6.9%
all 58 +52.3% +37.8% 66% 62% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.8% 62% +6.9%
10% +24.6% 45% -3.3%
15% +12.5% 34% -12.7%
20% +1.5% 22% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +90% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$27 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$916
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses38 / 20
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions5
Markets (closed)58 / 65
History coverage42d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 32¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 80¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $21 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $41 +$9 +23%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $54 +$46 +86%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $100 −$7 -7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +11%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $122 +$8 +6%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $71 +$29 +42%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $52 −$25 -49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 −$9 -14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$29 +57%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $151 +$36 +24%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $15 +$36 +238%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $252 +$92 +37%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 −$9 -17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$19 -38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$9 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $80 +$20 +24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$61 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $48 +$52 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $66 −$50 -76%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $27 −$27 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$33 -65%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 +$67 +656%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $100 +$13 +13%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $51 −$24 -47%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 01 $65 +$35 +55%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $71 +$29 +41%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $165 +$33 +20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 31 $48 −$47 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 30 $50 +$20 +40%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $79 +$21 +26%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $157 +$65 +41%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $201 +$44 +22%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $302 +$97 +32%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 29 $102 +$111 +109%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $201 +$16 +8%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $102 −$14 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 82¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 32¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 82¢ $94 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 45h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $54 46h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $41 46h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $122 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 2d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 60¢ $59 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $71 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 4d
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 29¢ $15 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 43¢ $6 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 83¢ $101 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 64¢ $42 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 31¢ $32 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.11 · official $204.11 (match) · 137 history records