Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
05 0x052d…05fd crypto 1039 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$134 (+0%) realized +$134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate92%955W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$495
14 days−$1,327
30 days−$1,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$434
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -2.7% -11.9% 87% 6% -14.6%
≤30d 434 -0.4% -9.9% 88% 15% -12.8%
≤90d 1039 +1.4% -8.2% 92% 14% -9.9%
all 1039 +1.4% -8.2% 92% 14% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 14% -9.9%
10% -17.0% 8% -18.5%
15% -25.0% 4% -26.4%
20% -32.4% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$91 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses955 / 84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1039 / 1039
History coverage83d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1039 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $94 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $203 −$95 -47%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$111 +107%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$39 +39%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $205 −$12 -6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $203 −$96 -47%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$12 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$8 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $203 −$55 -27%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $37 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $204 −$33 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $94 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 34h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $57 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 37h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 39h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 39h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.01 · official $101.01 (match) · 2108 history records