Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:53:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x052c…8eb2 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,060 (-4%) realized −$1,060 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate82%68W / 15L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$66
14 days+$73
30 days+$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$1,454
politics 36% +$240
other 9% −$192
sports 5% +$355
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +14.4% +3.5% 100% 42% +2.7%
≤30d 18 +14.7% +3.7% 94% 44% +5.3%
≤90d 22 +9.9% -0.6% 91% 45% -0.5%
all 83 +10.4% -0.1% 82% 37% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 37% -13.0%
10% -9.7% 28% -21.3%
15% -18.4% 14% -28.9%
20% -26.4% 10% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +17% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$246 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,060
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses68 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage244d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $99 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $71 +$29 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $88 −$28 -32%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $74 +$26 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $155 +$84 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 26 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 29 $176 −$82 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 29 $87 +$7 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $71 +$16 +22%
Thunder vs. Clippers Mar 23 $665 −$97 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Mar 23 $505 −$310 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25? Mar 23 $1,255 −$1,255 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $69 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 21 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 13 $62 +$4 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $58 +$4 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $50 +$8 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 04 $39 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 03 $38 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 28? Mar 01 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $36 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 27 $28 +$2 +7%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Feb 03 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Feb 02 $30 $0 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $22 +$8 +36%
Hornets vs. Pistons Jan 08 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 13 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 09 $321 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 02 $61 +$39 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 02 $277 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 02 $72 +$28 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 02 $41 +$59 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 02 $44 +$56 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 02 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 02 $47 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $71 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 13d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $44 19d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 19d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 19d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $9 19d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 19d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 20d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $74 20d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $2 24d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $6 24d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $3 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 389 history records