Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:14:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x052b…7c83
weather · 91 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$93 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$93 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses12 / 76
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage54d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 3 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 22? No 99¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6? No 99¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 27? No 98¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 21? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 23? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 7? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 31? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on May 30? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 29? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 29? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 27? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on May 27? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? May 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on May 17? May 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? May 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16? May 18 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 15? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 14? May 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 13? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 14? May 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 6? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 6? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on May 6? May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5? May 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09? May 06 $14 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C or higher on May 5? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6? May 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 5? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 05 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 5? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 4? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 4? May 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's video get between 60 and 62 million views on day 3? May 04 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on May 4? May 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on May 4? May 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 3? May 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 3? May 03 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% −$97
other 4% +$2
politics 2% +$2
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 5m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $12 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 9? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $13 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $15 6d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 4? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +0.2% -9.4% 6% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 88 -24.6% -31.8% 14% 1% -18.6%
all 88 -24.6% -31.8% 14% 1% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 1% -18.6%
10% -38.3% 0% -26.4%
15% -44.2% 0% -33.5%
20% -49.7% 0% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.10 · official $42.10 (match) · 285 history records