Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x0527…c9b0 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%18W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$14
sports 18% +$80
politics 16% −$4
tech 7% −$2
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 54 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 99 +7.8% -2.5% 18% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 11% -9.3%
10% -11.8% 8% -18.0%
15% -20.3% 6% -25.9%
20% -28.1% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses18 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage130d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $252 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $220 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $243 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 16 $221 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $421 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $289 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $254 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $241 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $744 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $470 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $217 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $208 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $226 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $255 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $267 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $440 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 05 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $470 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $201 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $683 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $399 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $234 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $255 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $242 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $422 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $270 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $218 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $205 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $226 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 29 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 28 $217 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $413 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $680 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $252 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $252 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 32d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $243 33d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $243 36d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $221 36d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $221 45d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $229 62d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $229 63d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 64d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $283 65d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $289 65d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $289 66d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $254 66d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $254 66d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $203 66d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $203 67d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $211 67d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $211 67d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $200 67d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $200 67d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap SELL No 100¢ $250 68d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $250 68d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 68d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $220 69d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $212 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.98 (match) · 304 history records