Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x0527…0be4 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+0%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate86%90W / 15L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$503per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$2
crypto 2% +$5
other 1% +$13
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% +$45
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$2
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 105 +5.9% -4.2% 86% 25% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 25% -9.4%
10% -13.3% 21% -18.1%
15% -21.7% 16% -26.0%
20% -29.4% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses90 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage616d
Avg bet$503
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $102 $102 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 23 $102 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 19 $101 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 11 $102 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in January? Feb 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Jan 21 $38 $0 -0%
Pakistan strike on India by December 31? Jan 21 $11 $0 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition Jan 21 $11 +$1 +10%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? Jan 21 $16 $0 +2%
Will South Korea move its capital to Sejong in 2025? Jan 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $175 in November? Dec 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $615 in November? Dec 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will Fulham vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Nov 26 $7 +$3 +41%
Spread: Fulham (-1.5) Nov 26 $9 +$2 +25%
Spread: Crystal Palace (-1.5) Nov 26 $3 +$9 +285%
Will Wolves vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? Nov 26 $12 +$4 +35%
Fulham vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Nov 26 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 26 $13 +$4 +28%
Will Burnley FC vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Nov 26 $15 +$4 +24%
Wolves vs. Crystal Palace: O/U 2.5 Nov 26 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 26 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-22? Nov 26 $12 +$11 +92%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22? Nov 26 $17 +$8 +47%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Chelsea: O/U 2.5 Nov 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Chelsea (-1.5) Nov 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-09? Nov 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09? Nov 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-11-09? Nov 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-11-09? Nov 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest (-0.5) Nov 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 Nov 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-09? Nov 21 $7 +$3 +41%
Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United: O/U 2.5 Nov 21 $4 +$6 +141%
Will Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Nov 21 $8 +$3 +39%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United end in a draw? Nov 21 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Brentford vs. Newcastle end in a draw? Nov 21 $8 +$3 +39%
Spread: Newcastle (-0.5) Nov 21 $8 +$5 +61%
Spread: Aston Villa (-0.5) Nov 21 $6 +$8 +133%
Brentford vs. Newcastle: O/U 2.5 Nov 21 $8 +$7 +89%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-09? Nov 21 $10 +$13 +133%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 09 $124 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 14 $153 $0 +0%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Aug 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Aug 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jul 15 $129 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $102 1h
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $102 35d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $101 62d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $101 104d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $102 137d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $42 153d
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? BUY No 100¢ $41 153d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 153d
Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL No 99¢ $38 153d
Will South Korea move its capital to Sejong in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $25 197d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $16 197d
Pakistan strike on India by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $11 197d
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition BUY Yes 91¢ $11 197d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $70 209d
Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? BUY No 100¢ $38 209d
Will Tesla reach $615 in November? BUY No 100¢ $50 209d
Will Google dip to $175 in November? BUY No 100¢ $49 209d
Spread: Crystal Palace (-1.5) BUY Crystal Palace 26¢ $3 214d
Wolves vs. Crystal Palace: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 214d
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? BUY No 78¢ $13 214d
Will Wolves vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $12 214d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-22? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 214d
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? BUY No 56¢ $6 214d
Will Fulham vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $7 214d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-22? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 214d
Spread: Fulham (-1.5) BUY Sunderland AFC 80¢ $9 214d
Fulham vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 214d
Burnley FC vs. Chelsea: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 214d
Spread: Chelsea (-1.5) BUY Burnley FC 60¢ $7 214d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? BUY No 87¢ $17 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.95 · official $101.95 (match) · 216 history records