Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x0520…e4e0 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 370d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,530 (-52%) realized −$1,518 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 370d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$1,544
crypto 12% −$33
sports 2% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +16.1% +5.1% 25% 25% -97.3%
≤30d 4 +16.1% +5.1% 25% 25% -97.3%
≤90d 4 +16.1% +5.1% 25% 25% -97.3%
all 5 -7.1% -15.9% 20% 20% -97.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 20% -97.3%
10% -24.0% 20% -97.5%
15% -31.3% 20% -97.8%
20% -38.1% 20% -98.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -97% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$392 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$1,293
Realized−$1,518
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage370d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $305 $302 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,548 −$1,535 -99%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $310 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $504 17h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $504 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 18h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $302 18h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score AND Will Czechia win on BUY 38¢ $37 18h
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 370d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,293.29 · official $1,293.29 (match) · 14 history records