Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0520…6c81 world 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%30W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$2
sports 19% −$7
other 17% −$7
politics 11% −$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.7% -4.3% 71% 14% -8.0%
≤30d 26 +1.7% -8.0% 42% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 74 +26.9% +14.8% 38% 4% -9.5%
all 82 +17.6% +6.4% 37% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 4% -10.1%
10% -3.8% 2% -18.7%
15% -13.1% 2% -26.5%
20% -21.6% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses30 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage532d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $62 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $31 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $4 +$2 +47%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $4 $0 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $57 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $64 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $65 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $82 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $27 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $61 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $9 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $61 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $28 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $8 −$2 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $19 −$2 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $11 +$1 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $81 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 11 $31 $0 +1%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 11 $54 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $109 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $2 −$1 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $13 21m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $21 21m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $15 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $29 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $2 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 86¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $9 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $11 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $7 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records