Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x051a…54c6 sports 368 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$59 (+3%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%130W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$647
7 days−$430
14 days−$526
30 days−$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$59
other 2% −$9
tech 1% $0
weather 0% +$2
politics 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 -93.0% -93.7% 2% 2% -49.9%
≤30d 227 -89.0% -90.1% 3% 3% -51.1%
≤90d 243 -70.1% -72.9% 9% 9% -37.2%
all 358 -1.7% -11.0% 36% 33% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 33% -7.5%
10% -19.5% 32% -16.3%
15% -27.3% 31% -24.4%
20% -34.4% 30% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +92% → late -95% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses130 / 228
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions10
Markets (closed)358 / 368
History coverage232d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 58¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$23 +238%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$4 -72%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$9 +91%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Magic Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Warriors Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Hawks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 7? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Bucks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Heat Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 8? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Lakers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Pacers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Knicks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Pacers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Knicks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Wizards Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Warriors Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Knicks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hawks vs. Pacers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Raptors Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Pacers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Pacers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Knicks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Rockets Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Hornets Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Nets Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucks vs. Heat Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Hawks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Hornets vs. Rockets Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $20 23h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports $1 28h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $5 31h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $9 31h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $5 32h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $4 32h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 34h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 34h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 SELL Over 47¢ $10 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE $0 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 44¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $3 5d
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $183 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $5 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $121 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.79 · official $53.79 (match) · 790 history records