Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
05 0x051a…7c45 weather 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$532 (+2%) realized +$514 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate86%95W / 15L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$100
14 days+$62
30 days+$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$404
sports 2% +$78
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.5% -8.1% 78% 11% -5.5%
≤30d 38 +1.6% -8.0% 79% 8% -7.6%
≤90d 110 +0.5% -9.1% 86% 6% -7.7%
all 110 +0.5% -9.1% 86% 6% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 6% -7.7%
10% -17.8% 2% -16.5%
15% -25.7% 0% -24.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized+$514
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses95 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage77d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? No 94¢ 99¢ $308 $326 +$18 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $268 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $289 +$15 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? Jun 27 $61 −$9 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 27? Jun 27 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $164 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 25? Jun 25 $295 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $382 +$14 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? Jun 22 $154 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $526 +$59 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $396 −$95 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $390 +$27 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $312 +$30 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $564 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 20 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? Jun 19 $382 +$23 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $135 −$40 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $56 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $65 +$16 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $191 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 6? Jun 07 $214 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 6? Jun 07 $268 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $384 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $155 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $339 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $109 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 3? Jun 04 $391 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 3? Jun 04 $443 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $756 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $53 −$6 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 30? May 31 $619 +$31 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 30? May 30 $215 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 29? May 30 $150 +$42 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 29? May 30 $648 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 26? May 27 $489 +$18 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 26? May 27 $281 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 23? May 24 $83 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 23? May 23 $258 +$28 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 23? May 23 $185 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 22? May 23 $370 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 17? May 21 $590 +$13 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 17? May 21 $124 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 17? May 17 $110 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 17? May 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 16? May 17 $147 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 16? May 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $199 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $110 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? SELL No 59¢ $22 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? SELL No 69¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? SELL No 80¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? SELL No 80¢ $16 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 77¢ $61 30h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $70 30h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $198 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 27? SELL No 91¢ $36 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $35 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $8 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 27? SELL No 95¢ $12 31h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 27? SELL No 95¢ $50 31h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $246 31h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $100 39h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $164 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $300 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $295 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $396 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $57 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $93 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $39 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $43 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $24 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $125 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $97 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $57 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $536 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 92¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.55 · official $325.55 (match) · 661 history records