Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
05 0x0519…3b47 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$285 (+23%) realized +$287 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR91%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$324
other 8% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +91%
net ROI/market (all)+21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +33.9% +21.2% 91% 91% +21.3%
≤30d 11 +33.9% +21.2% 91% 91% +21.3%
≤90d 11 +33.9% +21.2% 91% 91% +21.3%
all 11 +33.9% +21.2% 91% 91% +21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.2% 91% +21.3%
10% +9.6% 82% +9.7%
15% -1.0% 73% -0.9%
20% -10.7% 64% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$100 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.79 per $1 lost it wins $4.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$287
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $101 +$56 +55%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 +$50 +49%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $101 +$53 +52%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $101 +$59 +58%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $101 +$54 +54%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$51 +50%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$19 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? SELL No 90¢ $157 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $101 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 1h
United States to win the second half? SELL No 89¢ $154 2h
United States to win the second half? BUY No 58¢ $101 3h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? SELL No 91¢ $160 4h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $154 4h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 4h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $101 5h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $156 21h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 53¢ $101 21h
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 87¢ $152 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $101 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $101 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 82¢ $120 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.10 · official $98.10 (match) · 22 history records