Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
05 0x0517…ee64 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+13%) realized +$47 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$63
sports 6% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 67% +19.1%
≤30d 3 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 67% +19.1%
≤90d 3 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 67% +19.1%
all 3 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 67% +19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 67% +19.1%
10% -23.6% 67% +7.7%
15% -31.0% 33% -2.7%
20% -37.7% 33% -12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$20 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $111 +$62 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.37 · official $208.38 (match) · 10 history records