Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x0517…933a
other · 52 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$159 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$156 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$83
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses27 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage404d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 1 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$20
14 days−$28
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 95¢ 99¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 71¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 19¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 20¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Yes 19¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET? No 15¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 58¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Djokovic 30¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? No 29¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff Sorana Cirstea 34¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw? Yes 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Yes 46¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Jelena Ostapenko Jelena Ostapenko 43¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 07 $10 −$3 -28%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $10 +$3 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $49 −$37 -76%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $21 +$15 +70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 21 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 20 $15 −$11 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva May 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $10 −$3 -28%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Jelena Ostapenko May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $66 +$37 +56%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $96 +$64 +67%
Romania No-Confidence vote passes? May 06 $112 +$21 +18%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $96 +$14 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 31 $50 +$24 +47%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $15 −$15 -98%
Women's Knockout - Switzerland vs. Sweden Mar 26 $30 +$53 +178%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 01 $21 +$23 +113%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 375000 Oct 10 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Celtic win on 2025-10-02? Oct 03 $40 +$51 +127%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET? Oct 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30? Oct 01 $20 +$36 +178%
Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? Sep 09 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 08 $20 +$24 +122%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $2 +$3 +150%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Aug 31 $10 +$5 +54%
French Open: Alcaraz vs. Sinner Jun 21 $4 +$1 +19%
French Open: Sabalenka vs. Gauff Jun 07 $24 −$20 -84%
French Open: Sinner vs. Bublik Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
French Open: Zverev vs. Djokovic Jun 07 $19 +$5 +25%
French Open: Andreeva vs. Boisson Jun 04 $4 +$6 +138%
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? May 18 $81 −$70 -86%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 18 $67 +$153 +227%
Will George Simion win by 6–12%? May 18 $44 −$18 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% +$162
sports 23% −$104
world 9% +$29
politics 6% +$132
crypto 5% −$29
culture 2% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 95¢ $80 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 61¢ $5 24h
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 19¢ $20 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 69¢ $10 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 77¢ $10 8d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 20¢ $35 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 14¢ $2 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 93¢ $0 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Marta Kostyuk $1 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 19¢ $2 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 71¢ $15 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 47¢ $10 9d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 46¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $6 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 24d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 24d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $21 24d
Will Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28d
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 28d
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -22.1% -29.5% 33% 33% -60.3%
≤30d 15 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 40% -10.2%
≤90d 29 -13.2% -21.5% 52% 41% -3.9%
all 51 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 47% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 47% +0.8%
10% -17.6% 41% -8.8%
15% -25.5% 37% -17.6%
20% -32.8% 33% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.25 · official $83.25 (match) · 119 history records