Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0510…4c9c sports 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$879 (-5%) realized −$867 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%115W / 113L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$191est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,029
other 0% −$15
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +51.2% +36.8% 100% 100% +47.6%
≤30d 6 +16.1% +5.0% 83% 67% +22.2%
≤90d 81 +2.0% -7.7% 65% 48% -14.4%
all 228 -9.1% -17.8% 50% 41% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 41% -14.1%
10% -25.6% 34% -22.3%
15% -32.8% 27% -29.8%
20% -39.4% 18% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$46 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$867
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses115 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage124d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Inner Circle Esports 68¢ 65¢ $284 $272 −$12 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $3 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $51 +$33 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $90 +$19 +21%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 +$1 +67%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 22 $2 $0 +14%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $10 −$9 -94%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $112 −$111 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $91 +$21 +23%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $273 −$108 -40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $245 −$242 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $263 −$166 -63%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $145 +$66 +45%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $151 +$44 +29%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $271 −$201 -74%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $202 −$198 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $37 −$37 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $101 +$37 +37%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $48 −$48 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 01 $2 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 24 $1,255 −$520 -41%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Heroic (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 24 $240 −$93 -39%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Apr 24 $200 +$29 +14%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Acend (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Apr 24 $1 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Legacy (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playoffs Apr 24 $1 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Crashers (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playof Apr 23 $8 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Apr 22 $4 +$4 +98%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - Conquest of Prague On Apr 20 $131 +$14 +11%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Onl Apr 20 $1 $0 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $733 +$395 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $126 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $700 −$402 -57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $400 −$167 -42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $1 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 16 $475 +$335 +70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $725 −$260 -36%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $180 +$50 +28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $300 +$73 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $55 −$5 -10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $150 +$60 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $71 +$34 +48%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $2 −$1 -40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 68¢ $100 1m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 69¢ $92 9m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 33¢ $0 10m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 66¢ $95 11m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 35¢ $94 11m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 45¢ $7 24m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 64¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 57¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 44¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 72¢ $3 27h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 60¢ $40 6d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 60¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 82¢ $90 22d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 94¢ $1 22d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 57¢ $1 26d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Heroic 62¢ $1 26d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Heroic 62¢ $1 26d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $10 37d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY MOUZ 84¢ $2 37d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY MOUZ 71¢ $3 40d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY 9z 62¢ $112 44d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL Spirit 96¢ $112 44d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $91 44d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL MOUZ 100¢ $90 44d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY MOUZ 82¢ $74 44d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL Aurora Gaming 23¢ $75 44d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $198 44d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $101 45d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $145 45d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A SELL FUT Esports 19¢ $44 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.45 · official $272.45 (match) · 685 history records