Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
05 0x050a…49e4 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$58 (+3%) realized +$67 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%30W / 20L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days+$287
14 days+$406
30 days+$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$132
sports 47% +$302
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +39.1% +25.9% 52% 48% +28.4%
≤30d 50 +38.5% +25.3% 60% 50% +22.1%
≤90d 50 +38.5% +25.3% 60% 50% +22.1%
all 50 +38.5% +25.3% 60% 50% +22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.3% 50% +22.1%
10% +13.4% 50% +10.5%
15% +2.4% 50% -0.2%
20% -7.6% 44% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$14 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses30 / 20
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 69
History coverage19d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 28 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $30 +$27 +90%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $30 +$36 +119%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 +$20 +66%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $174 −$83 -48%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $30 +$67 +225%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-2 Jun 27 $40 +$61 +152%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 +$11 +109%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 20 Jun 24 $31 +$89 +291%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $30 +$25 +82%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $20 +$85 +413%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $15 +$37 +238%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $143 −$16 -11%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $35 +$21 +59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $94 +$45 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win o Jun 20 $20 +$35 +170%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 $0 -5%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +73%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$21 +52%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$9 -91%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$20 +382%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +81%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $25 +$3 +10%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$17 +274%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$10 +103%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $4 +$3 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 81¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY 20¢ $30 2h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY 38¢ $40 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 42¢ $40 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $10 8h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 8h
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 27h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Algeria vs. Austria: B BUY $10 44h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $30 44h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 44h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 11¢ $87 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $5 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $174 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY $20 47h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Austria win on 2026- BUY 13¢ $20 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 50¢ $59 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 47h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Portugal win on 20 BUY 28¢ $50 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $5 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams BUY 17¢ $40 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-2 BUY 39¢ $40 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 30¢ $30 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? A BUY 16¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 22¢ $10 5d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-2 BUY 11¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.79 · official $118.65 · 127 history records