Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x0506…8c6a sports 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,484 (+8%) realized +$12,484 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%144W / 112L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$621per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1,405est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,829
7 days+$835
14 days+$2,547
30 days+$3,694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$14,495
crypto 11% −$2,585
other 3% −$4,259
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +9.2% -1.2% 75% 58% -4.3%
≤30d 41 -4.3% -13.4% 61% 39% +1.8%
≤90d 144 -10.7% -19.2% 47% 38% -5.7%
all 256 +2.7% -7.1% 56% 44% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 44% -3.3%
10% -16.0% 36% -12.6%
15% -24.1% 30% -21.0%
20% -31.5% 24% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$792) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$402 vs −$453 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses144 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,405
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage196d
Avg bet$621
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions (67 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $1,610 +$388 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $4,660 −$3,142 -67%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $1,076 +$924 +86%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $650 +$54 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,384 +$1,615 +117%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1,598 +$402 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,347 +$240 +18%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $3,022 +$925 +31%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $497 +$502 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $788 −$774 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $1,380 +$1,712 +124%
Will Gabriel Bonfim win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $575 −$435 -76%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $4,715 −$707 -15%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $490 −$373 -76%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $505 +$248 +49%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Massey vs. Clarke (Cruiserweight, Main) Jun 06 $30 +$20 +65%
Zuffa Boxing 7: MacMillan vs. Fanthome (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $10 $0 +5%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Hughes vs. Vergiev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Zuffa Boxing 7: McKenna vs. Streeter (Middleweight, Main) Jun 06 $100 +$4 +4%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Dykes vs. Dychko (Heavyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $792 +$58 +7%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Billam-Smith vs. Rozicki (Cruiserweight, Main) Jun 06 $124 −$72 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 31 $520 −$520 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 31 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 31 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 31 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 30 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 30 $209 +$83 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 30 $311 +$311 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 30 $312 +$425 +136%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $307 −$300 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main May 30 $827 +$83 +10%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $2,539 +$2,792 +110%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $559 +$945 +169%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $430 −$430 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 24 $1,030 +$736 +72%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $211 −$210 -100%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire May 24 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 18 $524 −$524 -100%
Zuffa Boxing 6: Boymatov vs. Stanton (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) May 18 $505 −$154 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 18 $2,043 −$2,043 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 18 $956 −$956 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 18 $1,665 +$1,914 +115%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $1,963 −$135 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 18 $1,026 −$1,026 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 18 $814 −$798 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 18 $211 −$200 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Under 99¢ $5 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 100¢ $1,998 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 80¢ $1,610 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 41¢ $681 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 41¢ $3 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 38¢ $130 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 76¢ $710 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 76¢ $3 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 76¢ $4 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 76¢ $49 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 76¢ $1,474 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 76¢ $32 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 76¢ $16 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kevin Borjas 22¢ $429 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 42¢ $300 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 42¢ $34 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 42¢ $21 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 42¢ $21 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 42¢ $420 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 42¢ $2 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 42¢ $26 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 42¢ $16 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 42¢ $1 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Andre Lima 67¢ $658 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 72¢ $305 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 72¢ $36 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 72¢ $89 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 72¢ $252 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 72¢ $39 3h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 33¢ $12 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1466 history records