Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
05 0x0500…540b other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$911 (+38%) realized +$1,008 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$633
sports 13% +$137
world 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +17.6% +6.4% 80% 80% +26.7%
≤30d 10 +17.6% +6.4% 80% 80% +26.7%
≤90d 10 +17.6% +6.4% 80% 80% +26.7%
all 10 +17.6% +6.4% 80% 80% +26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 80% +26.7%
10% -3.8% 70% +14.6%
15% -13.1% 50% +3.5%
20% -21.6% 30% -6.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$19 · ×5.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.44 per $1 lost it wins $23.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$1,008
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 28¢ 29¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+6%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $100 +$78 +78%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $200 +$69 +35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $200 +$93 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $405 +$44 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $511 +$336 +66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $204 +$124 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $407 +$119 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$29 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$46 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 21m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $200 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $100 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $200 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $405 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $511 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $204 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $149 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $407 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.48 · official $147.48 (match) · 22 history records