Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:36:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04fe…aba2 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-24%) realized −$31 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$1
other 29% −$34
crypto 4% −$5
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -70.0% -72.9% 0% 0% -80.2%
≤30d 9 -60.5% -64.3% 11% 11% -85.2%
≤90d 9 -60.5% -64.3% 11% 11% -85.2%
all 9 -60.5% -64.3% 11% 11% -85.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.3% 11% -85.2%
10% -67.7% 11% -86.7%
15% -70.8% 11% -87.9%
20% -73.7% 11% -89.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage14d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $2 $0 -10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Wil BUY 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Japan to score first vs. Brazil? AND Wil BUY 13¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 42h
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc BUY Yes 0¢ $1 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 11d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 12d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 12d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 12d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.62 · official $83.28 · 17 history records