Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:40:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04fc…6528 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% $0
other 10% −$12
tech 5% $0
politics 5% +$1
weather 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 +1.3% -8.4% 27% 13% -9.4%
≤90d 15 +1.3% -8.4% 27% 13% -9.4%
all 32 -4.2% -13.3% 47% 6% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 6% -11.6%
10% -21.6% 0% -20.0%
15% -29.2% 0% -27.7%
20% -36.1% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage474d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $43 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 20 $14 −$9 -64%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $8 $0 -2%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 7? Mar 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15? Mar 07 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $28 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $8 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $26 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $2 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $8 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $8 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $12 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $19 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records