Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:57:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04fb…e909
crypto · 337 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$115 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$134 · open −$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$341
Realized+$134
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses196 / 136
Open positions6
Markets (closed)332 / 337
History coverage3d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1062.7
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 6 History 332 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$134
14 days+$134
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Up 91¢ 98¢ $119 $128 +$9 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Up 79¢ 90¢ $90 $103 +$13 (+14%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Up 81¢ 88¢ $47 $51 +$4 (+9%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Down 81¢ 100¢ $23 $28 +$5 (+23%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Up 63¢ 68¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+8%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Down 54¢ 12¢ $23 $5 −$18 (-78%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Down 51¢ 32¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-36%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Down 40¢ 10¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-76%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Up 74¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Down 53¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -12%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $48 −$30 -61%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $74 +$3 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$4 -14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$38 +37%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $60 −$30 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $73 −$11 -15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$16 -73%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$14 -28%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$6 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$5 +21%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $94 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $33 −$7 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $208 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +21%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $140 −$113 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$1 -3%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -11%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $107 −$14 -13%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 -2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $89 +$69 +77%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $22 +$3 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $37 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $98 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$12 +94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$14 +32%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$8 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $34 +$5 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +17%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $17 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $76 +$3 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $97 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $77 −$17 -22%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $37 −$7 -18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$4 -29%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $59 +$12 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% +$12
other 39% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 9m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $0 10m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $5 11m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $75 17m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 18m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 18m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $34 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 19m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 19m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $12 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 332 +0.9% -8.7% 59% 29% -8.6%
≤30d 332 +0.9% -8.7% 59% 29% -8.6%
≤90d 332 +0.9% -8.7% 59% 29% -8.6%
all 332 +0.9% -8.7% 59% 29% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1062.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 29% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 16% -17.4%
15% -25.4% 11% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.87 · official $340.87 (match) · 3500 history records