Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04f9…9848
other · 19 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$59 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$53 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 5 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 +$117 +145%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $68 +$13 +19%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $24 +$6 +24%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$36 -70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 −$83 -84%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$26 -86%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$15 +96%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $39 +$30 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $37 +$48 +131%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 55% −$93
other 45% +$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 50¢ $4 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $10 5h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $5 6h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 52¢ $5 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $81 8h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $81 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $4 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 91¢ $30 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $15 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 73¢ $24 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $23 12h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $8 12h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $16 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $7 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 14h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $8 14h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $8 14h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $16 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.3% -0.2% 57% 57% -0.5%
≤30d 14 +10.3% -0.2% 57% 57% -0.5%
≤90d 14 +10.3% -0.2% 57% 57% -0.5%
all 14 +10.3% -0.2% 57% 57% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 57% -0.5%
10% -9.8% 50% -10.1%
15% -18.5% 43% -18.8%
20% -26.5% 36% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.65 · official $47.65 (match) · 58 history records