Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04f8…1f02 politics 21 markets active 2d ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$55 (-8%) realized −$21 · open −$34
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%3W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$26
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$54
other 3% −$9
crypto 2% −$4
culture 1% −$8
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-66.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -36.6% -42.6% 0% 0% -14.3%
≤30d 4 -26.6% -33.6% 25% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 8 -37.9% -43.8% 25% 12% -13.7%
all 18 -62.4% -66.0% 17% 11% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.0% 11% -15.5%
10% -69.2% 6% -23.6%
15% -72.2% 0% -31.0%
20% -74.9% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses3 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage134d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $21 $2 −$19 (-91%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $475 −$16 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 17 $3 −$2 -70%
Wrestlefest: “The Demon” Finn Bálor vs. Dominik Mysterio Apr 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 07 $8 −$3 -42%
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 27 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Feb 22 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 20 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Feb 05 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMM Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual G Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchild (Sabrina Carpenter) win Song of the Year at the 68th Ann Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 39h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $10 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $7 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $15 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 19¢ $30 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 22¢ $21 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 17¢ $12 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 83¢ $104 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 19¢ $18 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $21 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 42¢ $389 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 40¢ $391 11d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 30d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $3 56d
Wrestlefest: “The Demon” Finn Bálor vs. Dominik Mysterio BUY Mysterio 17¢ $2 58d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 19¢ $8 63d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $3 65d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $4 65d
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 70d
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 75d
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 76d
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 81d
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 85d
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 85d
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 85d
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 85d
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $12 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.70 · official $2.70 (match) · 65 history records