Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

04 0x04f8…08d2 other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,112 (-7%) realized −$1,093 · open −$19

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate82%14W / 3L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$788per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$900now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$38

7 days−$1,698

14 days−$1,593

30 days−$1,127

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-15.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-12.1%	-20.5%	75%	0%	-32.2%
≤30d	17	-6.3%	-15.3%	82%	0%	-16.8%
≤90d	17	-6.3%	-15.3%	82%	0%	-16.8%
all	17	-6.3%	-15.3%	82%	0%	-16.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.3%	0%	-16.8%
10%	-23.4%	0%	-24.8%
15%	-30.8%	0%	-32.1%
20%	-37.6%	0%	-38.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,045) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -6% → late -7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$56 vs −$638 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.41 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$900

Realized−$1,093

Unrealized−$19

Win rate (resolved)82%

Wins / losses14 / 3

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 19

History coverage18d

Avg bet$788

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	91¢	92¢	$453	$462	+$9 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	93¢	88¢	$466	$438	−$28 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	Jun 27	$655	+$11	+2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 26	$475	+$25	+5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 26	$451	+$2	+0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 24	$460	+$40	+9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	Jun 24	$43	−$39	-90%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 24	$460	−$2	-0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	Jun 23	$476	+$24	+5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Jun 23	$475	+$25	+5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Jun 23	$476	+$24	+5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Jun 22	$460	+$40	+9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Jun 21	$1,873	−$1,873	-100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	Jun 20	$475	+$25	+5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Jun 19	$914	+$86	+9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Jun 13	$1,045	+$19	+2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Jun 12	$1,487	+$114	+8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$2,245	+$214	+10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 11	$1,463	+$137	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	BUY No	91¢	$183	25m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$68	1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$217	1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	SELL No	96¢	$96	1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	SELL No	96¢	$48	1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	SELL No	96¢	$68	1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	SELL No	96¢	$17	1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	SELL No	96¢	$128	1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	SELL No	96¢	$33	1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	SELL No	94¢	$2	1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	SELL No	94¢	$188	1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	SELL No	94¢	$24	1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	SELL No	94¢	$61	1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	BUY No	89¢	$179	12h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY No	91¢	$253	13h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	SELL No	91¢	$124	13h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY No	90¢	$328	13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL No	91¢	$26	21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL No	91¢	$109	21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL No	91¢	$2	21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL No	91¢	$18	21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL No	91¢	$97	21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL No	91¢	$201	21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY No	90¢	$99	38h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY No	90¢	$11	38h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY No	90¢	$57	39h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY No	90¢	$285	39h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$380	46h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$95	46h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$476	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $900.30 · official $899.05 (match) · 110 history records