Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
04 0x04f6…49f1 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$401 (+50%) realized +$674 · open −$273
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$412
7 days+$412
14 days+$412
30 days+$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$139
sports 46% +$267
world 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +70.9% +54.6% 67% 67% +66.3%
≤30d 3 +70.9% +54.6% 67% 67% +66.3%
≤90d 3 +70.9% +54.6% 67% 67% +66.3%
all 5 +14.9% +4.0% 40% 40% +58.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 40% +58.4%
10% -6.0% 40% +43.2%
15% -15.1% 40% +29.4%
20% -23.4% 40% +16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$10 · ×21.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.57 per $1 lost it wins $14.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$674
Unrealized−$273
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage138d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $274 $0 −$273 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$9 -9%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $268 +$276 +103%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $122 +$145 +119%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $12 −$11 -96%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $20 −$8 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $276 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $92 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 95¢ $544 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $106 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 46¢ $51 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 57¢ $111 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $122 22h
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 92d
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 118d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $12 137d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.21 (match) · 13 history records