Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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04 0x04f6…9bcd crypto 1666 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$40 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate92%1462W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$19
14 days−$96
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$82
weather 16% +$5
finance 1% $0
other 1% +$7
politics 0% +$3
sports 0% +$4
tech 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 +2.1% -7.6% 92% 4% -8.2%
≤30d 736 -1.1% -10.5% 93% 1% -10.6%
≤90d 1582 +0.4% -9.2% 92% 10% -9.8%
all 1582 +0.4% -9.2% 92% 10% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 10% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 3% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$564
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1462 / 120
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions88
Markets (closed)1582 / 1666
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 88 History 1582 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? No 99¢ 92¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 15 2026? No 98¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? No 99¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 90¢ 97¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 17? No 99¢ 66¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 17? No 99¢ 61¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 June 8-14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 June 8-14? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 27m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $14 28m
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $10 29m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 31m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 32m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.79 · official $563.79 (match) · 3500 history records