Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
04 0x04f5…9feb world 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$6
sports 26% +$32
other 11% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 17% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 11 +1.1% -8.6% 45% 0% -8.9%
all 11 +1.1% -8.6% 45% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.16 per $1 lost it wins $5.16
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage90d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $368 $0 +0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $375 −$1 -0%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? Jun 21 $280 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? Jun 15 $230 −$6 -2%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 06 $470 +$20 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $470 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 04 $446 $0 +0%
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) Apr 22 $404 +$8 +2%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $404 $0 +0%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Mar 30 $51 +$4 +8%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting? Mar 28 $112 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $368 49m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $368 2h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL No 95¢ $374 2h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 95¢ $375 3h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL No 95¢ $280 4d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY No 95¢ $280 4d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $225 10d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $230 10d
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Denmark 96¢ $470 22d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $470 22d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $470 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $446 52d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $20 52d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $425 52d
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) BUY Shanghai Haigang FC 98¢ $404 65d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $404 65d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $213 65d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $192 65d
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting? SELL No 81¢ $57 89d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY Panama 93¢ $51 90d
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting? SELL No 80¢ $56 90d
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting? BUY No 80¢ $112 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records