Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
04 0x04f1…6825 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+6%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$35
world 12% −$18
sports 5% −$9
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -20.7% -28.2% 50% 33% +13.4%
≤30d 6 -20.7% -28.2% 50% 33% +13.4%
≤90d 6 -20.7% -28.2% 50% 33% +13.4%
all 13 -30.1% -36.8% 31% 23% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 23% -1.4%
10% -42.8% 23% -10.8%
15% -48.4% 15% -19.4%
20% -53.4% 15% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$5 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage371d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $70 +$7 +10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$6 +30%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Boxing: Abby vs. RoRo Jul 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Boxing: Perxitaa vs. Gaspi Jul 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Concacaf Gold Cup: USA vs. Guatemala (To Advance) Jul 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $2 +$7 +285%
Will Iran declare war on Israel before July? Jun 23 $5 −$3 -52%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $70 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 33¢ $3 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 30h
Boxing: Abby vs. RoRo BUY RoRo 64¢ $2 331d
Boxing: Perxitaa vs. Gaspi BUY Gaspi 52¢ $2 331d
Concacaf Gold Cup: USA vs. Guatemala (To Advance) BUY Guatemala 6¢ $5 355d
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 364d
Will Iran declare war on Israel before July? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 364d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 366d
Will Iran declare war on Israel before July? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 371d
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 371d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records