Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04f1…03e7 politics 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
politics 27% −$1
other 12% +$1
crypto 9% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 56% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -9.4%
all 44 -0.7% -10.2% 27% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage264d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 29¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $13 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $73 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 08 $2 $0 -3%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $1 $0 -22%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $1 $0 -27%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $3 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $13 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $10 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $3 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $23 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $13 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $23 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $41 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 87¢ $43 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $42 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $42 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $24 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $24 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records